Sunday, January 10, 2016

1/10/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Fillies and mares dominate the latter portion of today's card at Santa Anita, including today's feature, which drew enough entrants that it'll be run in two divisions.  So with that, let's jump right in as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Bad Ju Ju (Morning Line 9-2)

B’s

# 1 So Sweetitiz (ML 4-1)
# 3 Yana (ML 7-2)
# 6 Cadet Roni (ML 3-1)
# 8 Girl Downstairs (ML 12-1)

C's

# 5 Nite Delite (ML 6-1)

This is the earlier division of today's feature, having the identical conditions as Race 8 below.

Bad Ju Ju took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.  Bad Ju Ju puts the hood back on, which may give her a jump on the rest of the speed signed up for this one.

So Sweetitiz tries winners for the first time; she also has to be careful not to get trapped on the rail, as she seems to do better when she presses rather than leads.  However, if So Sweetitiz can run her race, she can contend here.

Yana took the Place two starts back, the last time that she competed at this class level.  Yana's workouts show that she should be in fine form for this contest.  Cadet Roni took the Show at this class level last time out, and could improve with the turn back in distance.  Girl Downstairs, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, may have just needed that last race.  Besides, who can pass up 12-1 on Baffert / Garcia?

Nite Delite has shown nice improvement her last two races after moving to the turf and adding the blinkers.  If her recent success is dependent on the grass, then she won't fare well in this contest on the main track; but if it's the blinkers that caused her recent wake-up, then Nite Delite could do well today.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N3L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Ain't Misbehavin (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Celebrity Status (ML 7-2)
# 5 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Benba (ML 5-1)

Ain't Misbehavin took the Place last time out against $25k unconditioned claimers.  Two starts back Ain't Misbehavin won running at this price level, but again against unconditioned.  This is quite a drop down the class ladder for Ain't Misbehavin, and if he can repeat the effort that he gave in either of those two contests, then he should get his picture taken today.

Celebrity Status and Benba should provide for an honest pace in the early going.  The problem with Celebrity Status and Benba is that they both seem to settle for too many minor awards.

Aventador (Fr), a stakes winner and Graded Stakes placed in his native France, returns to action off a layoff of over sixteen months.  If Aventador can run to his prior form, then he's an easy winner here; but if his connections thought that Aventador could run back to his prior form, they wouldn't be offering him for sale for $16k.  Still, Aventador's back class must be respected, so we can't totally ignore his presence.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 My Fiona (ML 6-1)
# 9 Lily Pod (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Conquest Flatterme (ML 6-1)
# 5 Gracie Ragazza (ML 8-1)

C's

None

This is the later division of today's feature, having the identical conditions as Race 6 above.

My Fiona took the show at this class level last time out, albeit back in June.  Still, My Fiona does show a steady work pattern of late, and should be ready heading into this contest.

Lily Pod graduated over this main track, and could be the quickest in this field.  Conquest Flatterme won her debut last time out, albeit on the fake stuff; but she has been working well over this main track.  Gracie Ragazza has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts; and while those two starts were around two turns, Gracie Ragazza has won at today's distance in the past.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Major Rager (ML 6-1)
# 9 Moonie (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Briartic Gal (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ballerina Headline (ML 9-2)
# 10 Chalk of the Town (ML 8-1)

C's

None

# 1 Don't tell Judy (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Major Rager has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her career starts, all against non-claiming maidens (state-bread and open).  Moonie has taken the Place in six of her ten career starts, including her last two.  Perhaps today will be the day that she decides to lead the pack.

The only thing we learned from Briartic's debut back in April was that she didn't like running on some California grass.  Briartic's gate work on 1/3 suggests that she should do much better on the dirt.

Speaking of doing better on the dirt, Ballerina Headline and Chalk of the Town both ship in from upstate after doing quite well in their respective last time out on the synthetic.  If either one can transfer their game onto real dirt then they can win here.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 2 with 6,9 with 8,9 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,7,8 with 2 with 2,5,6,9 with 6,7,8,9,10 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2 with 6,9 with 8,9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5,6 with 6,9 with 8,9 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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