Monday, January 18, 2016

1/18/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the whole staircase." - Martin Luther King Jr.

We've made it to the final day of our three day holiday weekend; and as was true for each of the two prior days, the Feature Race at Santa Anita is a distaff offering; in this case the Grade 3 Megahertz.  We'll be looking at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Mr. Coker (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Twirling (ML 3-1)
# 6 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Mischievous Bull (ML 6-1)

Mr. Coker took the Place in his debut last time out at this class level for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  Mr. Coker was over ten lengths clear of the Show horse at the wire in that contest.

Twirling is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Baffert; Rafael Bejarano gets the mount.  Horse Greedy adds the blinkers for his second start; Trainer Brian Koriner does well when making this move.  Mischievous Bull, trained by Doug O'Neill, was sired by Into Mischief, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Eagle Rock (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 5 Bandido Too (ML 5-1)
# 6 Inspired Wisdom (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Monsieur Power (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 3 Cougar Country (ML 9-2)

Last time out Eagle Rock, at today's class level, won the speed duel but lost the race.  The half length shaved off today's distance should help, as should the rider change to Rafael Bejarano.

Bandido Too gets some much needed class relief.  Inspired Wisdom moves up the class ladder after defeating N2L company last time out.  Inspired Wisdom's trainer, Marty Jones, tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Monsieur Power (Ire), trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, fits at this class level, based upon his efforts upstate.  The question with Monsieur Power is how well will he handle real dirt.  Cougar Country made a nice move forward last time out while competing against less expensive stock.  The question with Cougar Country is can he build on that effort with the change in barn.

RACE 8 - (F) The Megahertz (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Glory (ML 7-2)
# 8 Gender Agenda (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Stormy Lucy (ML 4-1)

B's

# 6 Tiz a Kiss (ML 20-1)

C's

None

# 5 Sweet as a Rose (No Line) and # 13 Oscar Party (NL) have been scratched.

Gender Agenda (GB), Stormy Lucy, and Glory all exit the Grade 3 Bobby Frankel, where they were all within a neck of each other at the wire .  It would not surprise me to see the same finish in this contest today.  Tiz a Kiss could be the one running best late in a turf field that seems to have a disproportionate amount of early speed.

RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Star Express (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Discreetlyhumorme (ML 7-2)
# 3 Remember Clement (ML 8-1)
# 7 Gambler's Wish (ML 30-1)
# 9 Tribe of Gamblers (ML 6-1)
# 11 Calvert Street (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Da Brooklyn Kid (ML 10-1)
# 5 Bobby Z (ML 6-1)

Star Express has already had ten attempts at graduating; but his recent efforts have been showing steady improvement, and today will be his first time competing with Rafael Bejarano on his back.

Discreetlyhumorme broke well in his debut last time out, before he lost his rider.  Remembering Clement just missed graduation by a neck at this class level last time out.  Gambler's Wish should be more relaxed with the blinkers coming off.  Even without the hood, Gambler's Wish could be quickest out of the gate.

Tribe of Gamblers runs for a pricier tag, but moves from open to state-restricted company; at worst a lateral move.  Tribe of Gambles should improve with the return to a one turn contest.

Calvert Street has carried his speed further with each effort; perhaps today he'll carry it all the way to the Winner's Circle.  Da Brooklyn Kid and Bobby Z both broke well in their respective debuts last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 12 with 2,8,9 with 8 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5 with 5,6,12 with 2,6,8,9 with 1,3,7,8,9,11 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 12 with 2,8,9 with 8 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3 with 2,8,9 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 12 with 2,8,9 with 2,5 $3.00

Total: $49.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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