Downhill turf racing is the key component of the back portion of today's card at Santa Anita, as half of the final four races on the program will be charges down the hill. We'll be analyzing them below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Hoffenheim (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 2 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)
# 5 Bistra (ML 3-1)
C's
None
Hoffenheim has finished in the money at this class level in each of his three career starts. Hoffenheim gained the lead in the stretch last time out only to lose by a neck; perhaps the half furlong reduction in distance will help him this go round.
Eric the Trojan could be the speed of the speed here, and his breeding suggests that two turns should be in his wheelhouse. Bistra took the Place last time out, hitting the wire over three lengths in front of Hoffenheim; but that was in a sprint, and this will be Bistra's first time routing.
RACE 7 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Rocket Heat (ML 7-2)
# 7 Coastline (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 County Lineman (ML 8-1)
# 8 Home Run Kitten (ML 4-1)
C's
# 9 Ocho Ocho Ocho (ML 8-1)
The restriction on this stakes is that it is open only to those runners which have not run a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2015.
Last time out, Rocket Heat and Coastline filled out the final two slots of the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Daytona, crossing the wire less than a length behind the winner. Look for Rocket Heat early and Coastline late.
County Lineman has been in the Trifecta four of the five times that he has charged down the hill in his career. Home Run Kitten and Ocho Ocho Ocho are a pair of Graded Stakes winners getting some much needed class relief.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/Alw 40000s - Six Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Star of Munster (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Dixie Space (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Red Stich (ML 4-1)
# 4 Yodelsong (ML 6-1)
Since I've gotten these conditions both right and wrong in the past, it seems only fair that I list them again (the correct version, hopefully):
If you're willing to put your three year old filly up for sale for $40k, you can enter her here. That's why Yodelsong can be a part of this field despite having never run for a tag before in her career.
If you don't want to say goodbye to your horse to someone willing to give you $40k, then your runner must:
1) Have started for a claiming price of $40k or less (make it $50k or less if the horse is California bred or sired);
AND
2) Have never won two races
Besides Yodelsong, the other fillies in this field running with a price tag on their head are # 2 Octofy (ML 8-1) (two career Wins) and Star of Munster (three career Wins).
Star of Munster has won two of the three career races that she has run under these conditions; and the one that she lost was by just a nose. Dixie Spaces won her debut by three lengths last time out, and could get a nice stalking trip behind Star of Munster.
Red Stich has finished in the money at this class level in each of her last three races. As mentioned above, Yodelsong runs for a tag for the first time in her career; perhaps the class drop will help her return to the form that she showed in her debut, the only prior time that she has competed at today's distance.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Intoxicating Move (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 L. A. Magic (ML 20-1)
# 7 Miss Gifted (ML 3-1)
# 9 Odisseia (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Nobody draws in off the Also Eligible List; so take out # 11 Dutchessa (GB) 15-1); # 12 Altaira (ML 12-1); # 13 Ride the World (ML 6-1); and # 14 Summer Lady (ML 30-1).
Intoxicating Move was within two lengths of the winner at the wire charging down the hill against more expensive stock last time out. L. A. Magic, on the early lead in that same contest, ran out of gas late; expect L. A. Magic to have more stamina going second off the layoff.
Miss Gifted graduated in her debut charging down the hill, and gets some much needed class relief. Odisseia (Ire) has shown good early speed against more expensive while routing on the flat turf course; such horses tend to do well when moving to the downhill course.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,7 with 7 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5 with 1,4,7,8 with 6,7 with 1,7,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 9 with 7 with 10 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,7 with 3,4 with 10 $2.00
Total: $52.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2 comments:
Good job Jimbo!
Thank you, sir!
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