1/31/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The rains are coming with a vengeance today; indeed, the announcement has already been made that all turf races have been moved to the main track.  How bad the storms will be remains to be seen; but don't be surprised to see more scratches as the afternoon goes on.  Meanwhile, we will go on with our normal routine, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Blazeinblairsden (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 4 Lady Wedge (ML 2-1)

C's

# 3 Presidential Air (ML 8-1)
# 5 Black Clover (ML 5-1)

# 2 Truly Yours (ML 6-1) has been scratched.

Blazeinblairsden took the Show at this class level last time out.  Lady Wedge should be forwardly placed, and does get some class relief (though not as much as the price tag would suggest, as she is moving from state bred only to open competition).  

Presidential Air last all chance last time out when she hesitated at the break; the quick turnaround suggests that she's in fine shape to compete.  Black Clover would rate higher if she was still wearing the hood; but the success Trainer Charles Treece with transferees is enough to give Black Clover a spot on our tickets.

RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Kafister (ML 5-2)
# 5 Papa Turf (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 7 Alpha Bird (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Eighty Three (ML 3-1)
# 8 Chief Lion (ML 12-1)

EDIT - # 2 Texas Two Step (ML 5-1) was not scratched.  Rather, this is Texas Two Step's first start as a gelding.  My apologies for the error.

Kafister has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Papa Turf ran with Kafister most of the way last time out, and could improve going second off the layoff.  Alpha Bird gets some much needed class relief, and should be forwardly placed, even with the turnback in distance.

Eighty Three ships in from the East for Trainer David Jacobson, whose meet has not gotten off to a good beginning.  Still, the Beyer Speed Figures that Eighty Three earned on the Aqueduct inner track fit well with the contenders here, and they do show a steadily improving form.  Chief Lion seems to be rounding into the form that he showed earlier in his career.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Dirt (OFF THE TURF)

A’s

# 1 Husband's Folly (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Sundar Drums (ML 15-1)
# 13 Mahogany Run (ML 12-1)

C's

# 5 Zip the Monkey (ML 9-2)
# 10 Storm Comin Thru (ML 6-1)

# 6 Preacher Roe (No Line) is a program scratch.  In addition, scratch # 7 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 5-1), # 8 Sir Cal (ML 12-1), # 9 Cowboy (ML 15-1), and # 12 Tiz Futurity (ML 30-1).

Husband's Folly has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career starts on a wet track.  Husband's Folly will be getting some significant class relief as he drops in from open company.  Sundar Drums showed good early speed two and three starts back, and could get a good rail trip.

Mahogany Run goes first off the claim for Trainer Kristin Mulhall, who tends to do well with such.  Even with the outside draw, Mahogany Run should be forwardly placed.  Zip the Monkey showed marked improvement last time out with the stretchout to two turns, though some of that improvement should be credited to the move to turf.  Storm Comin Thru is on the ticket because how do you not use a runner named Storm Comin Thru on a day like today?

RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 El Nino Terrible (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 6 I Buy Gold (ML 7-2)
# 8 Sir Barclay (ML 4-1)
# 11 So Elite (ML 10-1)
# 12 Gnarly Dude (ML 5-2)

C's

None

# 5 Tiz Jolie (NL) and # 9 Collation (NL) are program scratches.  In addition, scratch # 1 Outthink'em (ML 30-1).

El Nino Terrible took the Place against more expensive last time out.  El Nino Terrible was also a winner in his only prior career try on a wet track.  I Buy Gold took the Place against more expensive two starts back.  Sir Barclay took the Show at this class level last time out, and could be the one leading the field around the track.

So Elite has done well in his relatively few starts on dirt, though this will be his first try on an off track.  Gnarly Dude took the Place at this class level last time out, and goes first off the claim for Trainer Steve Miyadi, who tends to do well with such.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 3,5 with 1 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 3,5,7 with 1,2,13 with 3,6,8,11,12 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,8 with 1 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,5 with 5,10 with 3 $2.00

Total: $52.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo