RACE 6 - The Midnight Lute (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Distinctiv Passion (Morning Line 3-1)
# 4 Pulling G's (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 San Onofre (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 Salutos Amigos (ML 3-1)
# 1 Seattle Serenade (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
If you're handicapping relies primarily on speed figures, how you see this contest could be strongly affected by which Past Performances you are using. To illustrate my point, if you were to look at the Brisnet Past Performances and rank the six entrants based upon the Bris Speed Figure that they earned in their most recent race, this is what you would get:
All Run
San Onofre (-3)
Pulling G's (-5)
Raised a Secret (-5)
Salutos Amigos (-7)
Distinctiv Passion (-22)
But if you were using The Daily Racing Form's Past Performances, with Beyer Speed Figures, you would get:
Pulling G's
Salutos Amigos (-2)
All Run (-3)
San Onofre (-6)
Raised a Secret (-10)
Distinctiv Passion (-33)
I point that out just as reminder that, while speed figures are a very useful handicapping tool, they are just one piece of the handicapping puzzle; and they are prone to wide variation based upon the subjectivity of the figure maker.
Distinctiv Passion captured the most recent running of this contest thirteen months ago, and could be the speed of the speed in this field. Pulling G's was less than a length behind the winner in the Grade 3 Fall Highway Handicap last time out despite a rather troubled trip. San Onofre returns from a six month absence, and appears to have been working well for this. Salutos Amigos is oh-for-his last six; but he is the top earner in this field, and he may appreciate the extra half panel.
RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Black Tie (ML 9-2)
# 11 Whiskey Wild (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 8 Player's Charm (ML 9-2)
# 13 Peace Arch (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Bookworm (ML 8-1)
# 4 Outthink'em (No Line) is a program scratch.
Black Tie took the Place last time out against more expensive. Whiskey Wild took the Show behind Black Tie last time out, and took the Place against unconditioned $16k claimers two starts back. Player's Charm has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three starts.
Peach Arch showed good early speed against much classier stock two starts back. Bookworm returns from an absence of over a year; but if Bookworm can match any of the Beyer Speed Figures that he earned in his prior three career starts, he'll be right in the mix today.
RACE 8 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Chiropractor (ML 4-1)
B's
# 8 Obviously (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 2 Big John B (ML 7-2)
# 5 Power Ped (ML 12-1)
# 6 Class Leader (ML 20-1) has been scratched. # 13 Southern Freedom (ML 15-1) and # 14 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 20-1) do not draw in from the Also Eligible List, but # 12 Kenjisstorm (ML 50-1) will run.
Chiropractor won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby last time out, and has been showing a steadily improving form. Obviously (Ire) looks like he'll have things all his own way on the front end early; but it's fair to question if Obviously can make all nine furlongs.
Big John B probably needs more pace and a longer distance to succeed; but Big John B is too talented to overlook completely. Power Ped could improve with the turn back in distance.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Travel Bound (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Ketchum (ML 15-1)
# 6 Radio Silent (ML 4-1)
# 12 Magic Moon (ML 9-2)
C's
# 4 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 12-1)
# 5 Architop (ML 9-2)
# 10 Where's Bubba (ML 8-1)
Travel Bound has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two races. Ketchum was much improved last time out with the class drop and the removal of the blinkers. Radio Silent drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. Magic Moon missed by just half a length at this class level last time out; but Magic Moon could be disadvantaged today by the wide post position draw.
Lucky Shoes to Win battled Ketchum into the stretch last time out before fading. In the race prior to that, Lucky Shoes to Win took the Place at this class level.
Architop drops in for the lowest tag of his career. Where's Bubba took the Show at this class level last time out, and could improve with the added distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 10 with 1 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4 with 5,8,11,13 with 8,10 with 1,2,6,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 5,11 with 10 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 2 with 10 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 2,5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 10 with 4,5,10 $6.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
A’s
# 10 Chiropractor (ML 4-1)
B's
# 8 Obviously (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 2 Big John B (ML 7-2)
# 5 Power Ped (ML 12-1)
# 6 Class Leader (ML 20-1) has been scratched. # 13 Southern Freedom (ML 15-1) and # 14 Quick Casablanca (Chi) (ML 20-1) do not draw in from the Also Eligible List, but # 12 Kenjisstorm (ML 50-1) will run.
Chiropractor won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby last time out, and has been showing a steadily improving form. Obviously (Ire) looks like he'll have things all his own way on the front end early; but it's fair to question if Obviously can make all nine furlongs.
Big John B probably needs more pace and a longer distance to succeed; but Big John B is too talented to overlook completely. Power Ped could improve with the turn back in distance.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Travel Bound (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Ketchum (ML 15-1)
# 6 Radio Silent (ML 4-1)
# 12 Magic Moon (ML 9-2)
C's
# 4 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 12-1)
# 5 Architop (ML 9-2)
# 10 Where's Bubba (ML 8-1)
Travel Bound has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two races. Ketchum was much improved last time out with the class drop and the removal of the blinkers. Radio Silent drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. Magic Moon missed by just half a length at this class level last time out; but Magic Moon could be disadvantaged today by the wide post position draw.
Lucky Shoes to Win battled Ketchum into the stretch last time out before fading. In the race prior to that, Lucky Shoes to Win took the Place at this class level.
Architop drops in for the lowest tag of his career. Where's Bubba took the Show at this class level last time out, and could improve with the added distance.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 10 with 1 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4 with 5,8,11,13 with 8,10 with 1,2,6,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 5,11 with 10 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 2 with 10 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 2,5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 5,11 with 10 with 4,5,10 $6.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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