7/10/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Sunday marks the final day of the current Santa Anita meet; and it looks like everyone is trying to get out of town quick, as all of the races on the card are one turn sprints.  So let's get moving ourselves, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Bourque (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 1 Klimt (ML 4-1)
# 2 Ky. Colonel (ML 4-1)
# 3 Aqua Frio (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Tell Me a Story (ML 6-1)
# 11 Mystic Kid (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Beantown Boys (No Line)

These are juvenile runners; no one in this field has more than one career start.  Bourque and Aqua Frio both took the Place in their respective debuts; I give the edge to Bourque because runners trained by Doug O'Neill are more likely to move forward in their second start than those trained by Blaine Wright.

Klimt didn't show much in his debut, when he left the gate as the Post Time Favorite; but Klimt gets the rail this time out, and he seems to be quick enough to make that work to his advantage.  Ky. Colonel had a monster work back on June 25; first time starters don't usually win for Trainer Richard Mandella, but perhaps Ky. Colonel will prove to be the exception.

Tell Me a Story is a first time starter sired by Telling, whose debuting progeny have been doing well (in a small sample size).  Mystic Kid is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who tends to do well with first time starters.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Candy Promises (ML 2-1)

B's

# 3 David's Memory (ML 12-1)
# 7 Blue Navy Blue (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Pee Wee Reese (ML 4-1)

# 6 Lovely Anzi (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 1 Awe So Special (ML 30-1) and # 5 King of Leon (Arg) (ML 30-1)

As opposed to Race 6, these are older runners, three years old and upward.  Candy Promises missed graduation by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Blue Navy Blue took the Place in his debut at this class level.  Blue Navy Blue has taken the Place charging down the hill in each of his last two starts, despite not having much turf breeding in his pedigree; so perhaps Blue Navy Blue improves with the return to dirt.

Speaking of turf pedigree, David's Memory is a debut runner sired by Vronsky out of an Unusual Heat dam; so why not save this runner for the Del Mar grass?  My guess is that David's Memory has been working well enough on the dirt for Trainer Hector Palma (who tends to do well with first time runners) that it was decided to see what David's Memory can do on the main track.

Pee Wee Reese and Lovely Anzi are both making the jump up in class from state bred restricted to open company.  Lovely Anzi ran well last time out in his second career start, while Pee Wee Reese has been working well in the AM for Trainer Phil D'Amato.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Tribal Fighter (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 3 Follini (ML 9-5)

C's

# 4 Boy Howdy (ML 2-1)

# 7 Tiz Love (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Foxy Lover (NL)

Tribal Fighter faces winners for the first time after graduating by daylight last time out.  Follini won the speed duel but lost the race last time out; perhaps Follini improves with the reduction in real estate.

Boy Howdy won his debut last time out by a head.  Tiz Love has been working well of late as he returns to action after spending close to eleven months on the bench.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/C - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Power Jam (ML 5-2)

# 4 Rocket Fuel (ML 4-1)
# 5 Alright Alright (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)

C's

# 6 Gutsy Ruler (ML 12-1)
# 7 One More Roll (ML 6-1)
# 8 Papa Turf (ML 12-1)

Power Jam missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Rocket Fuel may not have appreciated having to break on the rail last time out.  Alright Alright has been working well for this, his return to competition after a layoff of over a year and a half.

Distinctive B was within two lengths of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out.  Gutsy Ruler took the Show at this class level two starts back.  One More Roll took the Show at this class level last time out.  Papa Turf should be closer to the leaders early with the class drop.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 9 with 1 with 3,4,5 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4:  1,2,3,10 with 3,7,9 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 9 with 1 with 3,4,5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 4,6 with 1 with 3,4,5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 4,7 with 3,4,5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 1 with 6,7,8 $1.50

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:04 EDT / 4:04 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo