Sunday, July 3, 2016

7/3/16 Woodbine Pick Five - Preview

“There are no limits to the majestic future which lies before the mighty expanse of Canada with its virile, aspiring, cultured, and generous-hearted people.” - Sir Winston Churchill

As the US is celebrating its Independence Day Holiday weekend, Canada is celebrating their Canada Day Holiday weekend; and with that weekend comes the renewal of the oldest continuously run stakes race in North America, The Queen's Plate.  For the occasion, the good people in Toronto have put together a splendid Sunday card, which we will try to get the most from, as we take a run at The Pick Five at Woodbine Racetrack.

RACE 6 - The Charlie Barley $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Conquest Enforcer (Morning Line 2-1)
# 2 Hammers Vision (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Conquest Daddyo (ML 20-1)
# 10 Springhouse (ML 10-1)

C's

# 9 Uncle Guy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 8 Sky Marshal (ML 15-1)

Conquest Enforcer returned to action with a career best effort last time out in his first start of 2016.  Neither the switch back to the grass nor the added furlong should affect Conquest Enforcer today.

Hammers Vision missed victory in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge by just a length last time out.  Conquest Daddyo recent works suggest that he may return to the form that won him the Grade 2 Summer Stakes as a juvenile.

Springhouse looked sharp defeating older runners last time out.  Uncle Guy may improve with a clean trip today.

RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Nine Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 1 Niigon's Turn / # 1A Nipigon (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Macho Brew (ML 4-1)

Our single on the ticket is a double, as we take the entry; but our primary focus is on Nipigon, who missed at this class level by just a head last time out.  Macho Brew was victorious each of the last two times that he competed on this main track, and Macho Brew's win two back was comfortable enough that he may be able to handle to rise in class.

RACE 8 - The Singspiel (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Aldous Snow (ML 5-2)
# 5 Generous Kitten (ML 8-5)

B's

# 2 Danish Dynaformer (ML 6-1)
# 6 Money Talker (ML 3-1)
# 7 Hardest Core (ML 8-1)


C's

None

Aldous Snow is the defending champ here, having won this event each of the last two years.  Aldous Snow's victory last time out suggests that he should be in top form.  Generous Kitten won by daylight over a next out winner in OC 62k/N2X company, and looks ready to make the leap into stakes competition.

Danish Dynaformer is a prior winner at today's distance, and he gets some much needed class relief here.  Money Talker was just a half length behind Aldous Snow at the wire last time out.  Hardest Core may be ready to return to the form that he showed two summers back when he won the Grade 1 Arlington Million.

RACE 9 - (F) The Dance Smartly (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Lexie Lou (ML 4-1)
# 5 Strut the Course (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Ball Dancing (ML 12-1)
# 11 Nakuti (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Lexie Lou won the Grade 2 Nassau over this turf course two starts back, hitting the wire a length in front of Strut the Course.  The added distance of today's contest may favor the latter.  Ball Dancing has recently been off form, but her back class must be respected.  Nakuti's best North American effort came over this turf course; perhaps a return to these surroundings will revitalize her career.

RACE 10 - [R] The Queen's Plate $1000k - Ten Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Shakhimat (ML 5-1)
# 10 Amis Gizmo (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 All On Red (ML 12-1)
# 4 Leavem in Malibu (ML 7-2)
# 13 Gamble's Ghost (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Amis Gizmo and Shakhimat filled out the Exactor in The Plate Trial last time out, and the only question today is can they handle the added distance.  All On Red looked sharp in his first try on the fake stuff last time out, and as a son of Hard Spun he should still be running at the wire.

Leavem in Malibu is on the ticket because everyone else likes him and I feel as if I must be missing something.  Gamble's Ghost is the only filly in this field.  Gamble's Ghost is also the only multiple Graded Stakes winner in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.40 P5: 1,2 with 1 with 1,5 with 3,5 with 6,10 $6.40

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 1,2,7,10 with 1 with 1,2,5,6,7 with 3,5 with 3,4,6,10,13 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 9 with 1 with 1,5 with 3,5 with 6,10 $1.60
$0.20 P5: 1,2 with 4 with 1,5 with 3,5 with 6,10 $3.20
$0.20 P5: 1,2 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,11 with 6,10 $3.20

Total: $54.40

Post Time for Race 6 is 2:53 EDT / 11:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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