Sunday, July 31, 2016

7/31/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Speed is the key today at Del Mar, as the final four events on the program involve one turn racing, with the featured contest being the Grade 1 Bing Crosby.  So let's get to it, as we take another run at the Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 8 Deltalina (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 1 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 4-1)
# 2 Sturdy One (ML 12-1)

# 4 Seaside Glory (ML 3-1)
# 12 Boat Drinks (ML 6-1)

C's

# 5 Candy Boss (ML 8-1)
# 6 Madame Mousse (ML 4-1)


Scratch # 9 Miss Big Stuff (ML 8-1); # 10 Hell On Heels (ML 10-1); # 11 Little Treasure (ML 8-1); # 13 Lemon de Oro (ML 20-1); and # 14 Dream Navigator (ML 20-1).  Bring in # 12 Boat Drinks (ML 6-1) off the Also Eligible List.

Deltalina, trained by Wesley Ward, ships in from the east after taking the Show at this class level last time out at Churchill Downs.  Peach Cove (NZ) has done quite well sprinting on the grass in her native New Zealand, and Trainer Richard Mandella tends to do well when bringing back runners from an extended vacation.

Sturdy One was victorious in her one prior flat turf sprint, which was over this turf course last Fall.  Seaside Glory graduated last time out and is also trying the turf for the first time; but Seaside Glory certainly has the breeding for the lawn, and she showed enough early speed last time out that she could smoke the grass today.

Boat Drinks had a sharp work over the main track here last Sunday, and she could be the one running best late.  Candy Boss may get a nice stalking trip just off Seaside Glory.  Madame Mousse has shown good form charging down the hill at Santa Anita, but it's fair to wonder if that form will transfer to the flat surface at Del Mar.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Glacken Too (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Rocket Fuel (ML 7-2)
# 8 Jazzy Times (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Brimstoned (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 Schllairess (ML 6-1) and # 9 Mad Bum (ML 20-1)

Glacken Too, trained by Phil D'Amato, defeated classier stock three starts back.  Rocket Fuel took the Place at this class level last time out; but it's not a good sign that Rocket Fuel was backing up in the stretch in each of his last two starts, both covering less real estate than today's contest.

Jazzy Times, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place at this level last time out.  Brimstoned took the Show at this class level two starts back (albeit while competing around two turns).  Brimstoned has won two of his three career starts over this main track.

RACE 8 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Subtle Indian (ML 5-2)
# 8 Lord Nelson (ML 2-1)


B's

None

C's

# 7 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 Bluegrass Bronco (ML 20-1)

Lord Nelson defeated Subtle Indian by less than a length in the Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out.  Lord Nelson and Subtle Indian each have eleven career starts.  Lord Nelson has more Graded Stakes wins, but Subtle Indian has higher career earnings.  Is one of these two better than the other?  Perhaps; but I'd hate to have to live off the difference.

Home Run Kitten is the only legitimate closer in this field.  If Home Run Kitten is ever going to come off the pace to win at this level on the main track, this is it.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Pee Wee Reese (ML 7-2)
# 10 Just a Bit Outside (ML 15-1)

B's

# 2 David's Memory (ML 12-1)
# 12 Never Say Try (ML 4-1)

C's

# 7 Elkhorn Crown (ML 6-1)
# 8 First Responder (ML 9-2)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Lucky Snow (ML 20-1) and # 14 Sir Studleigh (ML 12-1)

Pee Wee Reese just missed graduation by a head last time out against open non-claiming maidens last time out.  Just a Bit Outside is a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato.  Just a Bit Outside was sired by Decarchy, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

David's Memory showed good early speed in his debut last time out (in the same contest where Pee Wee Reese too the Place) despite being crowded at the break.  Never Say Try is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.

Elkhorn Crown took the Place against lesser last time out, but Elkhorn Crown could move forward going second off an extended layoff.  First Responder drops from open company into the state-bred ranks, and had a sharp work over this main track back on the 18th.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 2,8 with 1,10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,8,12 with 1,3,8 with 2,8 with 1,2,10,12 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 3 with 2,8 with 1,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 2,8 with 1,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 7 with 1,10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 2,8 with 7,8 $2.00

Total: $73.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:33 EDT / 4:33 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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