Beholder makes her return to Del Mar Saturday in the forty-sixth running of the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch. We'll be taking a look at that contest below as we take another run at the Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Gracie Ragazza (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Swissarella (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 11 Big Break (ML 15-1)
# 12 Backintheacademy (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Take It Easyplease (ML 4-1)
# 4 Gift of a Star (ML 12-1)
# 7 Desert Madam (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 6 Savannah Sky (ML 7-2), # 10 That's a Lady (ML 3-1), and # 13 Enduring Erin (ML 5-1). Bring in # 11 Big Break (ML 15-1) and # 12 Backintheacademy (ML 15-1) off the Also Eligible List.
Gracie Ragazza won at this approximate class level three starts back at Los Alamitos, and enters this contest after a strong last out Win at the $32k Claiming level. Swissarella cold be the controlling speed in this field. Swissarella's last victory came at this class level earlier this year.
Big Break was victorious at this class level earlier this year, and Big Break recently took the Show against more expensive stock. Backintheacademy has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two starts over this main track, and Backintheacademy could be the one running best late.
Desert Madam and Take It Easyplease have the highest and second-highest (respectively) last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. The figures are the career best for each runner, earned in the same race where Desert Madame crossed the line a little over three lengths in front of Take It Easyplease. I am, to put it mildly, extremely skeptical of those figures, and that's before factoring in that these two runners are now moving up in class and adding weight. So for those reasons, I will be using Take It Easyplease and Desert Madam as backups only.
Gift of a Star has proven herself to be competitive at this level on the grass, and Gift of a Star did reasonably well in her dirt debut last time out.
RACE 8 - (F) The Clement L Hirsch (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Beholder (ML 1-5)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Stellar Wind (ML 5-2)
The only question with this contest is whether or not Beholder should be a single on our big ticket. Certainly Stellar Wind, a Grade 1 winner in her own right, is capable of winning today; but do Stellar Wind's chances, factored in with her higher odds, justify doubling the cost of our big ticket by including her with Beholder? Ultimately I decided no; but I'm not one hundred percent certain that was the right decision.
RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Bronzino (Fr) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 8 Foray (ML 3-1)
# 9 Broken Up (ML 15-1)
C's
# 11 Cervaro (ML 10-1)
Don't bring in any of those on the Also Eligible List: # 12 Lamaan (ML 15-1); # 13 Fin de Semaine (ML 12-1); and # 14 First to the Wire (ML 20-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career (N2L), as the Daily Racing Form does not include that information in their Past Performances; at least, not at the present time.
Bronzino (Fr) has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two North American turf races, both at today's distance. Foray had an impressive debut last time out on the other side of the continent.
Broken Up took the Place at this class level in his last turf start. Cervaro returns from an extended vacation; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with such.
RACE 10 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Suavemente (ML 5-1)
# 6 El Koreano (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 4 Concorso (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dream It Do It (ML 5-1)
# 9 Gramsson (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Boompa (ML 7-2)
Don't bring in either of the runners on the Also Eligible List: # 13 Gathering Evidence (ML 8-1) nor # 14 Redneck Crazy (ML 15-1)
Suavemente makes a big drop down the class ladder, moving from more expensive open claimers to this contest limited to runners with no more than one career victory. El Koreano was able to grab the early lead against more expensive last time out.
Concorso lost all chance last time out when he stumbled at the break. Dream It Do It misses by less than a length of having two career Wins at today's distance. Gramsson could improve with his second start off the layoff combined with a class drop. Boompa settles for too many minor awards to be on the big ticket; but Boompa is too talented to not use at all.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 1 with 2 with 2,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,9,11,12 with 1 with 2,8,9 with 2,4,6,7,9 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 1 with 2 with 2,6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 2 with 2 with 2,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 1 with 11 with 2,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 1 with 2 with 3 $1.00
Total: $42.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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