7/2/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Saturday kicks off the three day Independence Day Holiday Weekend, and the featured race at Santa Anita is the Grade 3 Affirmed for three year olds.  Unfortunately that event did not make its way into the final four races on the card.  What we have instead is a quartet of contests for those bargain shopping for thoroughbreds, including $8k claimers and $20k non-winners ever.  So with that let's just get to it, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Cheap O Charlie (Morning Line 8-1)
# 7 Seattle Boom (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Little Mustard (ML 5-2)
# 5 Rideo (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Regal Reign (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 8 Skookum Spirit (ML 5-1)

The only prior time that Cheap O Charlie donned the hood he took the Show at this class level.  Yeah, it was a well beaten third; but it was also behind a next out winner.  The prior race with the blinkers on was also one of the few in his career that Cheap O Charlie didn't experience a troubled trip; so perhaps he gets a smooth ride today.

Seattle Boom drops in for a tag for the first time in his career after disappointing in his last two tries as the Post Time Favorite.  Little Mustard is another coming off two consecutive contests where he was the beaten Favorite; though Little Mustard's races were at this class level, as opposed to the non-claiming maidens that Seattle Boom was facing upstate.

Rideo makes his 2016 debut after having shown very little as a two year old; but Trainer Richard Mandella tends to be successful when bringing runners back from an extended vacation, and Rideo getting the juice for the first time certainly shouldn't hurt.  Regal Reign returns to the class level at which he debuted, and could move forward with the added distance.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Profound Visionary (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Where's Bubba (ML 8-1)
# 4 Night Badger (ML 6-1)
# 8 Angels Journey (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Boompa (ML 5-2)
# 9 Visibility (ML 9-2)

Profound Visionary just missed victory by a head at this class level last time out.  Where's Bubba was less than a length away from the winner at the wire  the last time that he competed at today's distance at this class level.  Night Badger missed by just a nose at this class level two starts back.

Angels Journey took took the Show at this class level last time out, and could improve with the return to one turn racing.  Boompa has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last three races; so the talent is there for Boompa, but perhaps not the desire.  Visibility drops in class and adds the blinkers; in a contest without much speed, Visibility may be the one in control early.

RACE 8 - OC 25k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Pioneerof the West (ML 4-1)
# 5 Rare Candy (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 6 Brave Act (ML 9-2)

The conditions for this one are pretty much your standard N1X but with one interesting wrinkle: runners which broke their maiden on a turf or synthetic track are eligible to run without a tag, regardless of how many career Wins they have.  Personally, I'm surprised that, with that caveat, this race didn't draw more entrants, as it seems like a good contest to keep your turf horse in shape while waiting for Del Mar to open; or a possible soft spot for a runner upstate to grab a check if they've shown some ability to handle a dirt track.  But it looks like only six will be leaving the starting gate for this one.

Pioneerof the West, who took the Show in the Grade 3 Sham last year, has been showing a steadily improving form in his 2016 starts.  Rare Candy took the Place in the California Chrome two starts back.  Brave Act is the only runner in this field besides Pioneerof the West with Win over this main track.

RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Cant Do the Danse (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 3 Tribal Again (ML 7-2)

# 7 Lucky Shoes to Win (ML 4-1)

# 9 Misdeed (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Black Tie (ML 8-1)
# 2 Qatar's Pearl (ML 20-1)
# 11 The Gold Monkey (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 4 Jonny's Choice (ML 5-2) and # 10 Bound for Heaven (ML 20-1).  Bring in The Gold Monkey off the Also Eligible List.

Cant Do the Danse defeated more expensive three starts back, and (with the scratch of Bound for Heaven) could be the lone speed here.  Tribal Again has finished in the Trifecta in six of his seven career tries at today's distance.  Lucky Shoes to Win took the Show at this class level last time out.

Misdeed won by five lengths the last he routed on real dirt with blinkers off.  Black Tie is trained by Rafael Becerra, whose runners tend to do well when going from sprints to routes.  Qatar's Pearl has proven to be competitive at this class level, and should be an astronomical price.  The Gold Monkey regains the services of Jockey Eddie Maldonado, who was on The Gold Monkey's back when he broke his maiden on this main track last year.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 1,5 with 5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,7 with 1,3,4,8 with 1,5 with 3,5,7,9 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,5 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 5,9 with 1,5 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 6 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,11 $6.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:04 EDT / 4:04 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo