RACE 7 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Jade Princess (Morning Line 10-1)
# 10 Stays in Vegas (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Be Mine (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Mokat (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 7 Sweet Queen (ML 20-1)
Jade Princess, trained by Bob Baffert, looked much improved last time out in her first try on the grass. Stays in Vegas, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, misses by just a head of being a career four-for-four on the turf, all at the Listed or Graded Stakes level.
Belvoir Bay (GB), trained by Peter Miller, makes her first start of 2016 after winning The Blue Norther by the length of the stretch back in December. Be Mine seems to be an equal match for Stays in Vegas, based upon how little has separated them at the wire in each of their last two races. I give the edge here to Stays in Vegas because I believe that Be Mine needs more distance in order to show her best.
Lady Valeur (Ire) could improve with the cutback in distance. Mokat is the only runner here with a Win over this turf course, and she missed by less than a length of winning the Grade 3 Jimmy Durantee here last Fall.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Myheartsinthecity (ML 9-2)
# 10 Katy Drama (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 B K Miss (ML 20-1)
# 3 Holidayincambodia (ML 6-1)
# 5 Ish (ML 5-1)
# 6 Push Girl (ML 20-1)
# 7 Papa's Maggie (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tooluckysupermoon (ML 12-1)
# 9 Warren's Super Cat (ML 12-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Princess Kendra (ML 7-2)
Myheartsinthecity and Katy Drama look to me to be clearly the two best runners in this contest. The problem is that they both love to settle for minor awards, as they have combined to finish in the Trifecta twenty-two times, with only two victories between them (and Katy Drama's Win came via DQ; so she's never actually crossed the wire first in any race).
Now, if Myheartsinthecity and Katy Drama are far enough in front of the field in the stretch (as I expect them to be), then one of them will have to win. But as confident as I am that these two are the two best horses in this field, I have enough doubts about them both to put everyone else on the ticket as a "B" Selection.
RACE 9 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dortmund (ML 2-1)
# 6 California Chrome (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Win the Space (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Hard Aces (ML 8-1) and # 3 Soi Phet (ML 12-1)
Obviously, I'm not going to tell you anything about Dortmund or California Chrome that you don't already know. I'm also not going to try to split hairs trying to decide which of these two will run better today. As for Win the Space, I feel that he's worth taking a flyer on as a backup selection based upon his Place finish in the Grade 1 Gold Cup last month.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sassy Ashley (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Whistle Pretty (ML 5-1)
# 7 Lethal Legacy (ML 10-1)
# 7 Lethal Legacy (ML 10-1)
# 9 Shazara (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 12 Prevailing (ML 10-1) as well as the Also Eligibles, # 13 Onzaway (ML 3-1) and # 14 C. C. Zipp (ML 5-1)
Sassy Ahsley missed graduation by less than a length last time out at this class level. Whistle Pretty is a first time starter for Trainer Bob Hess Jr, who shows a positive ROI with such.
Lethal Legacy didn't show much in either of her prior tries against open (rather than state-bred) company; but Lethal Legacy does seem to be significantly improved since joining the barn of Trainer Tim Yakteen. Shazara has taken the Show at this class level in each of her prior three starts, all on the main track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 4,10 with 2,6 with 10 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,10 with ALL with 2,6 with 10 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,9 with 4,10 with 2,6 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 4,10 with 7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 4,10 with 2,6 with 6,7,9 $12.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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